Bayes' Theorem: The Ultimate Probability Calculator

Given a coin flip with 2 possible outcomes, a die roll with 6 possible outcomes, and 1 possible outcome from the result of a previous prediction, what is the probability of the moon being made of cheese?

Read our comprehensive guide to the moon's dairy-based geology

Bayes' Theorem states that the probability of the moon being made of cheese, given that we've observed it's made of cheese, is equal to the probability of observing the moon being made of cheese, given that it's actually made of cheese.

But what about the probability of the moon not being made of cheese, given that we've observed it's not made of cheese?

Run the simulation and find out!