Bayesian Basics
Bayesian statistics is a method of reasoning that's like a superpower for skeptics. It's like having a magic 8-ball that's always right, but never too sure. With Bayesian stats, you can update your beliefs like a boss, based on new evidence, and not like a conspiracy theorist, based on your feelings.
Here's the lowdown:
- Posterior distribution: It's like a magic graph that shows you the probability of all possible outcomes.
- Prior distribution: It's like a pre-game show that sets the stage for the main event.
- Likelihood: It's like a magic meter that measures how likely something is.
Learn why Bayesian stats are not for conspiracy theorists