Welcome, decision-makers, to the thrilling world of uncertain estimates! Where the numbers are fuzzy, the timelines are flexible, and the outcomes are... well, not quite sure what they are. It's your go-to guide for when you're faced with the daunting task of estimating the unknown.
In this chapter, we'll delve into the dark arts of:
- The Fuzziness Factor - A deep dive into the science of making vague promises sound concrete.
- The Axioms of Ambiguity - How to turn a simple question into a complex puzzle.
- The Plausibility Pitfall - Where even the most outrageous claims sound reasonable.
- The Credibility Challenge - A game of trust, where the rules are constantly changing.